Climate Change and its Global, Territorial Impacts

[buglerbilly]

Climate Change and Arctic Strategies

April 28, 2010

Climate Quandary

A Washington think tank is looking into the effects of climate change on U.S. national security and strategic interests. And the Center for a New American Security says in a recent report that the Navy is far ahead of the other services in addressing potential risks posed by climate change.


(Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Tiffini M. Jones)

The report also makes several recommendations to improve U.S. ability to promote national security in the face of a changing climate.

The recommendations include developing U.S. policy on such topics as geo-engineering (intentional manipulation of the climate), the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Seas (commonly known as UNCLOS), nuclear reactors on military bases and making one military command responsible for the Arctic region.

“The Arctic is proving to be the first case study in how climate change affects military missions, and maritime services (the Navy and Coast Guard) are gaining first-hand experience on the impact and complexities that may lie ahead for the U.S.,” according to the 112-page report.

The report says the U.S. Senate should ratify the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to protect U.S. and Defense Department interests. The CNAS report also recommends naming U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) as lead command on Arctic issues.

National security experts – including Daniel Kilcullen, the former counter insurgency adviser to Gen. David Petraeus in Iraq – will take part Wednesday (April 28) in a roundtable discussion of the report, including topics such as energy and water challenges in Pakistan and Afghanistan and how they will affect current military operations in the region.

Also speaking at the CSIS event will be Carol Browner, former head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and now President Obama’s top adviser on energy and climate change.

The High North

Meanwhile, another think tank – the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) – is holding a pow-wow on U.S. Strategic Interests in the High North, the area inside the Arctic Circle.

Once blocked by sea ice that made most maritime travel impossible — except for nuclear-powered submarines moving under the ice — the Arctic is believed to hold one-fifth of the planet’s undiscovered petroleum reserves. Now that climate change is melting the sea ice and making the Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific a reality, polar countries like Russia, Norway and Canada are jockeying for economic, political and military advantage in the region.

Speakers at today’s (April 28) day-long conference will include government officials and academics from the U.S., Norway, Canada and Denmark. They will discuss issues such as whether the U.S. should develop a separate Arctic policy and what will recent military posturing by Russia and other Arctic states mean for NATO.

CSIS also has a report out on the topic, U.S. Strategic Interests in the Arctic, which also calls for U.S. ratification of the UNCLOS and designating some U.S. agency to take the lead on Arctic strategy. The report’s authors thought NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command — a joint U.S.-Canadian operation — would make a good candidate.

[buglerbilly]

Ares

A Defense Technology Blog

Climate Change and National Security

Posted by John M. Doyle at 5/3/2010 8:58 AM CDT

By now most people have heard about the projected environmental consequences of climate change – even if they don't believe in global warming: more severe storms and droughts, melting sea ice, rising ocean levels and coastal flooding. Experts also expect food and water shortages in the poorer countries, causing population migration and possible conflict and political instability.


(U.S. Coast Guard photo)

But the audience at a Washington think tank's recent presentation on the environment and national security heard some surprising predictions about how climate could shape security issues in the future including:

--Global warming that melts Arctic sea ice could turn Russia and China into naval powers – and maritime rivals – later in the century;

--As more and more of the world's population inhabits crowded urban areas near the ocean or river deltas, they will be increasingly at risk for climate-related events like hurricanes, typhoons and flooding;

--Climate change will lead to more humanitarian crises that will challenge – but could also benefit -- U.S. military expeditionary skills – and improve America's image in the Third World.

A panel of national security experts discussed climate change and energy use at an April 28 gathering hosted by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). At issue, how the challenges of climate change, energy consumption and natural resources development affect U.S. national security and the future global security environment.

“It's increasingly clear to me,” said counter-insurgency expert Daniel Kilcullen, who moderated the discussion, “natural resources are tied up with civil reconstruction and counter-insurgency.”

Kilcullen, who advised Gen. David Petraeus on counter-insurgency during the troop surge in Iraq, says natural resources are “conflict drivers.” The continuing expansion of the deserts in North Africa, for example, are leading to population migration and pressures, such as water shortages, on local governments and communities,said Kilcullen, now a consultant and senior non-resident fellow at CNAS.

Christine Parthemore, director of the Natural Security Program at CNAS and co-author of a recent CNAS study on climate change and the U.S. military, says climate change is global in nature but “effects will vary greatly by region.” She called climate change in the Arctic “a clear security challenge” and recommends giving U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) sole responsibility for the region.

Robert Kaplan, a journalist and senior fellow at CNAS, noted that global warming could be a good thing for Russia where most of the population lives above the 50th Parallel – an area colder than where most Canadians live. Warmer waters and less sea ice could open up Russia's Arctic Sea ports and resource-rich Siberian rivers for longer periods of time. “The 21st Century could see Russia emerge as a maritime power,” Kaplan notes.

If the Arctic sea ice melt opens up the Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans or along Russia's Arctic Coast, opening up a Northeast Passage, that could change China's shipping patterns and also diminish the importance of the Suez Canal.

Kaplan said there were increasing disputes between Russia and China in the Russian Far East. Right now, Russia is weak and China is getting stronger, he said, but climate change could strengthen Russia economically. “Global warming will affect Russia's geopolitical interests and how China sees Russia,” Kaplan adds. Meanwhile the Chinese are building up their naval and maritime power. Navy Rear Admiral Philip Cullom said Chinese military strategists are avid readers of U.S. naval sea power advocate Alfred Thayer Mahan, adding that their maritime expansion was a sleeper issue for the present.

Cullom, who heads the Navy's Task Force Energy program, says the military “needs to have an affordable alternative to petroleum” because untapped sources are diminishing and existing oil fields are often in unfriendly hands. In looking for a replacement for petroleum products, however, Cullom said the Navy is not interested in “first generation” biofuels or mixtures that require re-engineering all the Navy's ships and planes. He's also not interested in fuels based on food crops like ethanol derived from corn or sugar. Instead he's looking at algae and camelina.


(Defense Dept. photo by Navy Senior Chief Spike Call)

Urban areas in Africa and Asia are growing and most population centers are within 100 nautical miles of coastlines, Cullom said, making them more vulnerable to weather upheavals. And that will place more demands of the U.S. military's expeditionary capabilities.

But that could be an opportunity to improve America's image with potential opponents and allies. “Our audience is going to be the growing middle classes of the greater Middle East and the Islamic world,” Kaplan said.

[Marc 1]

“It's increasingly clear to me,” said counter-insurgency expert Daniel Kilcullen, who moderated the discussion, “natural .

Unless he's changed his name recently - that'd be Dave Kilcullen.

[buglerbilly]

Ares

A Defense Technology Blog

Ice Gap

Posted by Paul McLeary at 5/5/2010 1:32 PM CDT


USS Annapolis in the Arctic Ocean after surfacing through three feet of ice during Ice Exercise 2009.

After Secretary Gates’ explosive speech at the Navy League conference on Monday, there was only enough time for one question from the audience. After calling into question the ability of Big Deck Navy to defend itself against irregular threats and flat out telling the Navy that its budget will remain static in the near-term, the question that was asked—which has been ignored in the sturm and drang over the speech itself—probably surprised some people.

Gates was asked about the Arctic.

Specifically, he was asked if the Navy or Coast Guard were investing in new icebreakers in preparation for the seasonal Arctic navigational routes that are expected to be open by the 2030s, and the commercial fishing and resource extraction traffic that many expect to infiltrate the region over the coming decades. The questioner (I didn’t catch his name) also asked about the ice breaker gap between the United States and Russia. The Russians have 18 modern, nuclear-powered icebreakers, compared to the three USCG vessels.

Gates started with a somewhat canned response, admitting that “we haven’t done too much advanced planning in terms of additional ice breaker capability, at least in the Navy.” He then added that “receding Arctic ice and the possibility of that shipping area being open during the good part of the year, this is something that we would clearly have to address and invest some resources in, along with our Canadian friends.”

What the questioner was getting at was the precarious state of the U.S. Coast Guard’s ice breaker assets, two of which were commissioned in 1976 and 1978, (the third was put to sea in 2000) and are beginning to require extensive repairs to stay afloat. One ship — the 34-year-old Polar Star — has been in dock since 2006 being refitted, heading back to sea in 2013. With more maritime traffic sure to head to the Arctic region in the near future; with Canada and Russia eying each other warily across the shrinking ice cap; and with the Chinese building the worlds’ largest icebreaker in order to further its exploration of the region, I stand with a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies report, which says that “more robust operational icebreaker fleet is essential for supporting U.S. military operations, maintaining U.S. presence, and preserving U.S. economic and other interests throughout the region.”

http://csis.org/event/us-strategic-interests-high-north-0

I’ll have a lot more on this in the June issue of DTI in a longer feature on Arctic strategies for the 21st century.

[buglerbilly]

Ares

A Defense Technology Blog

Navy Grappling with Climate Change

Posted by Paul McLeary at 5/28/2010 10:10 AM CDT

On May 21st, the U.S. Navy released its Climate Change Roadmap, a document developed by the sea service’s Task Force Climate Change that lays out the basic parameters of how the Navy sees climate change affecting its operations, and what steps it may need to take over the next five years.

The Roadmap doesn’t attempt to make any hard decisions for Navy doctrine or future operations. Rather, it’s one of a series of shaping documents that lays the groundwork for future Naval policy for equipping and educating the force to deal with everything from melting ice and permafrost in the Arctic to societal disruptions caused by costal flooding due to the rise in sea levels. You can get a better sense of what the roadmap means when you read it in conjunction with the Navy Arctic Roadmap which was released last November. While the Arctic Roadmap focused on issues concerning maritime security and naval readiness in a rapidly changing Arctic environment, the newer document tackles the broader issues of global climate change impacts on Navy missions and capabilities.

The Navy is pretty blunt in laying out the stakes in the new document, saying that “Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the Navy. Climate change will lead to increased tensions in nations with weak economies and political institutions. While climate change alone is not likely to lead to future conflict, it may be a contributing factor. Climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, U.S. military installations and access to natural resources worldwide. It will affect the type, scope, and location of future Navy missions.”

In response, the Climate Change Roadmap lays out a plan with three phases of implementation: Phase 1 calls for defining the requirements for improved climatic prediction capabilities through interagency efforts. Phase 2 outlines future challenges caused by rising sea levels and potential societal destabilization caused by changing climatic conditions. Phase 3 is the most far reaching—projecting out to fiscal year 2014—addressing investment decisions and the working though "interagency, multilateral and bilateral processes" to better assess climate change, and how to respond to the military impacts of climate change

[buglerbilly]

Ares

A Defense Technology Blog

Arming the Arctic

Posted by Paul McLeary at 7/20/2010 7:44 AM CDT


USMC Photo: U.S. Marines taking part in war games in Norway earlier this year.

The environmental changes occurring in the Arctic are as dramatic as they are significant for security cooperation and competition among Arctic nations. With the polar ice cap receding 25 percent since 1978, vast tracts of unexplored ocean rich with natural resources are opening up. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the Arctic contains over 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and some 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids—of which the USGS estimates a whopping 84 percent may wait "offshore."

While there may not be a “great race” north just yet, there is enough movement — politically, militarily and commercially — to make things interesting. Last year, two German ice-strengthened merchant ships sailed from South Korea over the Eurasian coast to the Atlantic Ocean, and that same year, 13 ships traversed the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic, making 2009 a record-setting year for full transits in the austere region in a summer season. Of the 135 full Northwest Passage transits since 1903, almost half — 60 — have come since 2000.

Still, the waters of the Arctic won’t be clogged with shipping any time soon. At an event in Washington, D.C., in April to discuss the emerging strategic significance of the region, Stephen Carmel, senior vice president for maritime services of shipping giant Maersk Line, warned that navigation in the area is still extremely difficult. “Decent charts really don’t exist,” he said, “aids for navigation don’t exist, emergency response capability does not exist, so there’s things that need to be done before you can really support shipping up there.” In general, “there are a lot of things overall that are still far from certain in terms of the practicalities of working” in the Arctic, he concluded.

But where there are economic opportunities, military thinkers start to see potential hot spots. The U.S. has always retained the most robust military presence in the Arctic of all the Arctic Council members — including Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Finland — and in January 2009 the George W. Bush administration released an Arctic Strategy paper that placed security as the U.S.'s primary concern in its Arctic territory (think Alaska). The U.S. Navy followed suit by issuing an Arctic Road Map that — thanks to Coast Guard help — laid out the direction that the lead naval service wants to pursue to meet the demands of U.S. maritime Arctic security.

But U.S. allies have also been busy. Norway has made massive investments in modernizing its Navy, including building five Aegis-capable frigates, and the country’s ground forces have started conducting the yearly Exercise Cold Response that involves more than 10,000 Norwegian and NATO troops, including U.S. Marines who practice cold-weather warfare.

Meanwhile, in the 2008 Canada First Defense Strategy and then again with its Northern Strategy in 2009, the Stephen Harper government has called for up to eight Arctic Offshore vessels, a $720 million icebreaker, a new satellite to map the region, a new deepwater resupply port, an army training base, and larger local militias in the region.

While the plans Ottawa have outlined look great on paper, Rob Huebert, a PhD Fellow at the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute, says none of the programs have made much, if any, headway. “We’re still in project definition” he tells AVIATION WEEK's Defense Technology International. “The problem is we’re already seeing signs of the government trying to cut back on expenditures,” and some of the projects have been postponed. “Many people on the inside worry that [the Joint Support Ship] has been cancelled,” and “we haven’t seen anything about the Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels…you get the sense that it hasn’t even moved up to the point where it is going to be put up for bidding and the icebreaker seems to be even further behind that.” The Russians, meanwhile, with their already large icebreaker fleet have announced plans for more nuclear-powered icebreakers, more ice-capable submarines, and as of 2008, had resumed surface naval patrols in Arctic waters. Moscow has also announced plans to land paratroopers on the North Pole some time this year.

While no one sees the outbreak of hostilities in the Arctic as a real possibility, and cooperation among the Arctic Council is becoming more and more common, the military buildup in the North is still something to watch.

[buglerbilly]

Canada Begins Annual Arctic Sovereignty Operation

(Source: Canadian Department of National Defence; issued Aug. 6, 2010)

OTTAWA --- The Canadian Forces’ largest annual demonstration of Canada’s sovereignty in the Arctic, known as Operation NANOOK, began today as the Canadian-led Naval Task Group crossed the 60th parallel en route to the High Arctic.

This year, the 20-day event will be based out of Resolute, Nunavut—the northernmost location to host the operation since its inception in 2007. Operation NANOOK will feature sovereignty and presence patrolling, military exercises, and will culminate with a whole-of-government exercise that focuses on fuel spill containment and remediation of a simulated leak in the Resolute Bay area.

“The NANOOK operations are an important demonstration of our Government’s commitment to the Arctic region” said the Honourable Peter MacKay, Minister of National Defence. “Building from experience and successes of previous operations, Operation NANOOK is the most complex operation of its kind, demonstrating our increased capacity and confidence in operating in the high Arctic.”

“Operation NANOOK is a clear demonstration of the Canadian Forces fulfilling our primary mission as stated in the Canada First Defence Strategy,” said General Walt Natynczyk, Chief of the Defence Staff. “We are committed to ensuring the security of all Canadians and to enhancing our presence in the Arctic by conducting sovereignty exercises and operations in cooperation with other government departments.”

As part of the Arctic Reserve Company Group, members of southern-Ontario Army Reserve units will conduct training exercises with Canadian Rangers in Resolute Bay and Pond Inlet. The Air Force will be providing air movement and mission support through the CC-177 Globemaster III, CC-130 Hercules, CP-140 Aurora, CH-146 Griffon, and CC-138 Twin Otter aircraft. The maritime component will include Her Majesty’s Canadian Ships (HMCS) Montreal, Glace Bay and Goose Bay; and Canadian Coast Guard Ships CCGS Des Groseilliers and CCGS Henry Larsen;

Canada has also invited the American naval destroyer USS Porter from theUnited States Second Fleet; the United States Coast Guard Cutter (USCGC) Alder; and the Royal Danish Navy ocean patrol vessel HDMS Vaedderen and offshore patrol vessel HDMS Knud Rasmussen for the purpose of exercising and increasing our interoperability with Arctic allies.

Operation NANOOK is based in the Eastern Arctic and is one of three major recurring sovereignty operations conducted annually by the CF in Canada's Arctic, along with Operation NUNALIVUT in the High Arctic, and Operation NUNAKPUT in the Western Arctic.

Planned and directed by Joint Task Force North in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, these annual operations highlight interoperability, command and control, and cooperation with interdepartmental and intergovernmental partners in the North.

-ends-

[buglerbilly]

Russia to Boost Arctic Research Efforts

September 20, 2010

Associated Press

MOSCOW - Russia is boosting its research efforts to support its claims for parts of the Arctic continental shelf, the Kremlin's pointman for the Arctic said Monday.

Artur Chilingarov told reporters that he will head an expedition next month to launch a drifting research station in the Arctic to gather scientific data in support of Russia's claim on Arctic territories.

Russia, the U.S., Canada, Denmark and Norway have all been trying to assert jurisdiction over parts of the Arctic, which is believed to contain as much as a quarter of the Earth's undiscovered oil and gas.

Russia's new drifting station will complement an icebreaker and a research ship that have been in the Arctic for the past two months, seeking evidence of Russia's territorial claims, said Chilingarov, the Russian president's envoy for international cooperation in the Arctic and Antarctica.

A polar scientist, Chilingarov led a 2007 expedition during which a Russian mini-submarine dropped a canister containing the Russian flag onto the seabed at the North Pole.

Arctic nations have become increasingly anxious to stake their claims to the polar territories as mounting evidence shows that global warming is shrinking polar ice, turning the previously inaccessible area into a potentially rich energy source.

An Arctic strategy paper signed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in 2008 said the polar region must become Russia's "top strategic resource base" by 2020.

Russia, Canada and Denmark are planning to file claims to the United Nations to prove their respective rights to the Lomonosov Ridge, an underwater mountain range. Russia first submitted its claim in 2001 to the U.N., but it was sent back for lack of evidence.

On Monday, Chilingarov said Russia would speed up collection of scientific data and submit them to the United Nations in 2013, matching the claim by Canada expected for that year.

Russia's special envoy in the Arctic Council, Anton Vasilyev, described the extension of Russia's territories in the Arctic as "feasible."

© Copyright 2010 Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[buglerbilly]

Russia employs Arctic brigade to defend oil and gas reserves

Russia is setting up a special motorised infantry brigade of troops ready to fight in the Arctic as tensions over the region's allegedly vast oil and gas wealth reserves grow.


The Royal Scots train in arctic conditions in Canada. Russia's arctic brigade will be combat-ready later this year Photo: MoD

By Andrew Osborn, Moscow11:33PM BST 31 Mar 2011

The troops will be based in the far northern town of Pechenga on Russia's Kola Peninsula close to the Norwegian and Finnish borders and will be combat-ready later this year.

Russian military planners said they had studied the way Arctic troops in Norway and Finland operated and had ordered in the necessary winterised clothing and arms for the new brigade which could number up to 8,000 troops.

The move follows a muscular series of comments from the deputy head of Russia's Border Service Colonel-General Vycheslav Dorokhin who said the Kremlin planned to build up its forces in the region to better patrol its Arctic territorial waters.

In particular, he said Russia wanted to step up patrols of the strategically important North East shipping passage.

"Our potential there will be built up. We won't let anyone feel themselves free (to move about as they please) in the Arctic."

Russia, the United States, Canada, Denmark and Norway are all locked in a race to grab a slice of the northern wilderness after US researchers predicted that global warming might leave the area ice-free, and therefore more easily navigable and explored, as early as 2030.

Experts say the region potentially contains one fifth of the world's oil and gas reserves and that the swath of Arctic territory claimed specifically by Russia could be home to oil supplies double the size of Saudi Arabia's proven reserves.

[buglerbilly]

Canadian Army's Renewed Interest in Arctic Draws Out Equipment Manufacturers Looking to Provide Tracked Vehicles: Photos

By Dave Pugliese

Wed, Jun 15 2011

David Pugliese’s Defence Watch

There isn't an approved program but some military equipment manufacturers are preparing for potential programs to supply the Canadian Forces if (and when) it follows through with its renewed emphasis on Arctic operations.

Manufacturers at CANSEC were displaying some vehicles for potential Arctic use.

Below are photos of the Bronco from ST Kinetics, via General Dynamics Land Systems – Canada, as well as BAE’s BvS10 vehicle.

Below: Bronco



Below: BvS10



Both vehicles can be used in a desert environment…the BvS10 has been used in Afghanistan for instance.

But they are equally effective on snow.

In September, 2010 I had a Defence Watch posting about my Defense News colleague Andrew Chuter reporting out of Eurosatory. There Singapore’s ST Kinetics noted it was targeting countries on the Arctic Circle for its Bronco all-terrain tracked vehicle.

ST Kinetics chief marketing officer Patrick Choy said the vehicle’s all-terrain capabilities would be well-suited for countries such as Canada, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, which will increasingly need to police the Arctic region as the ice cap melts, according to Andrew’s article.

Requirements in the Arctic rim for an all-terrain armored vehicle would pitch the Bronco into a head-to-head fight with the smaller-payload BvS10, the article noted.

But will such sales go through for the Canadian Forces, which is getting ready for some belt-tightening in the coming years? The Arctic angle, however, may give these vehicles some traction (pardon the pun) to move them forward on to the government’s radar.