Fall Out from the Mid Term Elections?

[buglerbilly]

GOP Wins; Afghanistan, Gitmo, ‘DADT’ Fights Loom

By Spencer Ackerman November 3, 2010 | 9:10 am



The Republicans didn’t just win big last night, taking back the House of Representatives. They beat most of the top Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee. Which means the Obama administration better get ready for two years of tough hearings on everything from Afghanistan to Gitmo, tanker planes to Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.

Take a last look at the membership list of the House committee. Longtime Democratic leader and outgoing chairman Ike Skelton of Missouri lost his seat. So did next-up John Spratt of South Carolina. So did next-up-next-up Solomon Ortiz of Texas (though a recount is possible). So did naval-subcommittee chairman Gene Taylor of Mississippi. So did Georgia’s Jim Marshall, New Hampshire’s Carol Shea-Porter, Virginia’s Glenn Nye, Maryland’s Frank Kratovil, Alabama’s Bobby Bright and New York’s Scott Murphy. Three other Democrats retired from the committee — one of them, Pennsylvania’s Joe Sestak, lost a Senate race last night — and things look tough for Washington’s Rick Larsen as well.

So say hello to likely incoming chairman Buck McKeon of California. As we reported last month, McKeon’s a big proponent of missile defense, a skeptic of the Obama administration’s plan to start withdrawing troops from Afghanistan next July, and no great fan of closing the Guantanamo Bay detention facility. One of his key allies, Virginia Republican Randy Forbes, has blasted the administration for neglect of the Navy and Air Force and general “lack of concern… for the men and women in uniform.” Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ plans to cut $100 billion in defense overhead in five years is going to get the fine-tooth-comb treatment from the committee. Expect hearings on all of these issues practically as soon as Speaker-in-Waiting John Boehner gavels the next Congress into session in January.

That’s hardly the only upcoming fight. Next month, the Pentagon will complete a military study on repealing the ban on open gay service. Unless the Senate can pass a stalled defense bill during the lame-duck session before January, the ban will remain in place until Congress chucks it. Only now it faces much steeper chances in a GOP-run House: repeal of the ban only passed the House this year after Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania — who, by the way, just lost his seat — added it as an amendment to the House version of the defense bill, to much GOP criticism. Forbes, the incoming chairman of the readiness subcommittee, wants to get the results of the military study before considering an end to the ban. But even if the study finds no problems with repealing it, wide GOP House majorities make it unlikely to get through the chamber. (And the Senate isn’t so hot on it either.)

If the administration doesn’t completely give up its intention to close the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay — which it failed to do in a Democratic-controlled Congress — administration officials should be ready for an earful on how it shows “more regard for the rights of terrorists than for justice for those lost on September 11th,” as Forbes said in a scathing statement in August. He’ll be joined by McKeon, Texas’ Mac Thornberry — who may get the intelligence committee’s gavel — and a host of new committee members, since the GOP platform for Congress pledged to “keep terrorist combatants in Guantanamo Bay not our local jails and courtrooms.” This might be the end for the end of Gitmo.

Then there’s the looming award of a contract to build the Air Force’s new refueling tanker. The company that doesn’t get the contract — EADS or Boeing — is likely to turn to its friends on the House committee for last-minute pressure on the Air Force and the Pentagon. Boeing’s best friend in Congress, Washington Democrat Norm Dicks, kept his seat last night, and he’ll probably return as top Dem on the defense-appropriations subcommittee. But he won’t chair it anymore, so Boeing may want to spread its money around (even further).

Boehner and the GOP leadership have to decide the next Congress’ committee composition and membership. A possible new addition to the armed-services committee: new congressman Allen West of Florida, a former Army lieutenant colonel (who was disciplined in 2003 for threatening an Iraqi detainee during an interrogation). Two who won’t be on the committee: Ilario Pantano and Tommy Sowers, who Danger Room interviewed last month, both fell short in their races.

The Senate Armed Services Committee, by contrast, sees little membership change; and the partisan composition of the Senate didn’t flip. But with fewer Democrats in the chamber, the Obama administration’s going to have to work harder to sell its nominees for key posts like the next defense secretary and the new leaders of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Army and the Air Force. Typically those jobs have earned bipartisan support, but the larger GOP minority in the Senate might compel the administration to look toward compromise choices in order to avoid being cast as weak on defense.

And if ever John McCain, the ranking member, wanted to wage a fight against the administration’s plans to start pulling troops out of Afghanistan in July 2011, the new Republicans in the Senate are likely to have his back. (Well, maybe not incoming Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, a war skeptic.) The future course of the war is likely to be the first major defense battleground between Obama and the expanded GOP minority in the Senate. And it’s definitely not going to be the last.

Photo: USMC

Read More http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/11/gop-wins-could-mean-showdowns-on-afghanistan-gitmo-dadt/#more-34592#ixzz14E73F8ta

[buglerbilly]

Ares

A Defense Technology Blog

What Midterm Elections Mean (Or Don't Mean) for Defense Spending

Posted by KristinMajcher at 11/3/2010 4:06 PM CDT


HASC Ranking Republican Buck McKeon
Source: Wikimedia Commons

As expected, the Republicans made substantial gains in the House during last night's midterm elections. As a result, the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) and House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee (HAC-D) will welcome a new cast of lawmakers replacing some pretty staunch supporters of defense.

One of the more surprising upheavals is HASC subcommittee's 78-year old chairman Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) losing to Vicky Hartzler (R.-Mo.) after 34 years in Congress. The likely candidate to step into his place? Howard "Buck" McKeon, the ranking Republican from Calif. who has hammered home the need for increased defense spending to focus on China and Iran while meanwhile keeping counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq adequately funded.

McKeon is known for having a critical eye of Defense Secretary Robert Gates' $101 billion defense savings plan, especially after joining forces with re-elected incumbent Rep. J. Randy Forbes (R-Va.) to demand detailed documents about Gates' plan to close the U.S. Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, Va. McKeon has also been vocal about Guantanamo Bay, Afghanistan and missile defense.

"One percent real growth in the base defense budget over the next five years is a net reduction for modernization efforts which are critical to protecting our nation's homeland," McKeon said in a post-election statement today.

But as Congress tries to tame a national debt that is fast approaching $14 trillion, it becomes clear that McKeon's vision for increased spending won't be all that easy. Defense funding accounts for at last 50% of discretionary spending, which House Republicans have pledged to cut by $100 billion. According to the White House office of Management and Budget, the U.S. will pay $250 billion in interest payments in the fiscal year that started Oct. 1, a figure projected to increase to $912 billion by 2020. Something has to give, but what?

Todd Harrison, a defense analyst for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, says that he only sees 1% real growth for defense spending, which is in step with Obama's plan.

"As a baseline, I don't see Congress deviating from that too much unless there's a bipartisan agreement on deficit reductions," he said. "That's probably a long shot at this point."

To throw a wrench in the works, some of the new libertarian lawmakers coming into power deviate from the Republican norm on exempting tax cuts from the rest of discretionary outlays. One of these lawmakers is Sen.-Elect Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican, who has made it clear that he'll put defense cuts on the table if necessary to reign in the unruly budget.

On the appropriations side, House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee Chairman Rep. Norman Dicks (D-Wash.) will make way for a new Republican leader. Ranking republican C.W. "Bill" Young of Florida could be in line to take the position, but his staff has not yet confirmed his interest in doing so.

[buglerbilly]

Lockheed, Northrop May Gain on China Even as Defense Cuts Loom

By Tony Capaccio and Gopal Ratnam - Nov 3, 2010 10:18 AM GMT+0800

Victorious House Republicans are likely to advocate a more muscular approach toward China, offering a potential boost to defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corp. and Northrop Grumman Corp. even as Congress comes under pressure to rein in the Pentagon’s budget.

“We have to look at the totality” of China’s efforts, said Representative Randy Forbes, a Virginia Republican who may become head of the House Armed Services readiness subcommittee. Once lawmakers focus on emerging challenges in areas from cyber warfare to aircraft carriers to missiles, they’ll say, “We better be changing our readiness capability.”

That would entail shifting more money toward weapons programs, rather than increasing spending, benefiting makers of sea-based anti-missile systems, submarines, destroyers and long- range drones. Another winner could be Alliant Techsystems Inc., which is developing targets to test defenses against a supersonic Chinese anti-ship missile.

Still, with U.S. troops deployed in two wars and concern over the federal deficit growing, Congress is being urged to curb the overall defense budget. Midterm elections yesterday gave Republicans a majority in the House and narrowed the Democrats’ margin in the Senate, according to television network projections.

House Republicans pledged to cut $100 billion in domestic discretionary outlays -- the spending set by Congress annually that isn’t mandated -- yet have exempted military funding, which makes up more than half of non-mandatory expenditures.

The political impetus to cut defense spending may grow when a bipartisan commission appointed by President Barack Obama next month releases recommendations on how to rein in the federal deficit. The Pentagon budget, which totaled $691 billion last year, may be one target.

‘1% Real Increase’

And Democrats retain control of the White House, which will submit a basically flat 2012 defense budget. The Senate also can block any moves by the House.

“The administration is saying there will be a 1 percent real increase in defense,” said Todd Harrison, an analyst for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. “If that’s the case, I don’t think either party would produce a significant increase beyond that, given the growing pressure to reduce the deficit.”

As a result, investors have soured on the defense sector and sent stocks of the top five contractors including Lockheed, Northrop, General Dynamics, Raytheon and L-3 Communications Inc., down by 3.8 percent since the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg data. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index has gained 7 percent.

Shifting the Money

Concern over the deficit won’t stop House Republicans from exploring ways to raise missile-defense spending and ensure the administration carries out plans to shift more money to weapons systems.

The Republicans will also probably press to continue funding General Electric Co.’s F136 backup engine on the F-35 fighter over the objections of both the administration and the military, and maintain strict oversight of the entire $382 billion aircraft project, the Pentagon’s No. 1 defense program.

The party has also come under fire from supporters in the Tea Party movement over the engine, which is partly made in Indiana. Indiana Representative Mike Pence, the House’s third- ranking Republican, defended the project in July, saying, “It is in the interest of taxpayers in the long run to have more than one source, more than one manufacturer of that engine.”

China’s Capability

On China, Republicans say the debate over how the U.S. should respond to the country’s military capability will shape the budget for weapons procurement and research, which is $187 billion in the 2011 budget that Congress is considering.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates is trying to maintain growth of 2 percent to 3 percent through 2015 in those accounts. The new House majority will try to make sure his plan to move $100 billion from accounts not directly related to arms making into weapons and research programs by 2015 is implemented.

China is strengthening military capabilities to extend its reach beyond its shores toward the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, in areas where the U.S. is seeking stronger alliances, the Pentagon said in an annual report to Congress in August.

Republicans want the Pentagon to release more information on China’s strategy of developing weapons designed to deny U.S. forces access to areas near Chinese waters, Forbes said.

Lockheed, Raytheon

The changes the Republicans will seek could benefit sea- based missile-defense companies such as Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed and Waltham, Massachusetts-based and Raytheon Co., said Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Virginia.

Also standing to gain are ship and submarine-makers Northrop Grumman, based in Los Angeles, and General Dynamics Corp., based in Falls Church, Virginia, said James McAleese, a consultant to defense companies.

A representative of the Aerospace Industries Association said concern about “near-peer competitors” like China was likely to drive defense policy and budget decisions.

House Republicans may place a “greater focus on modernization, research and development and looking at near-peer competitors than ongoing operations,” said Cord Sterling, vice president of the Arlington, Virginia-based group, which represents companies such as Lockheed, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman. “Strategic defense, including missile defense, space, shipbuilding and aircrafts are all areas where investment is needed to focus on near-peer threats,” he said.

Protecting Home Turf

Lockheed and Raytheon are the Pentagon’s primary makers of the Aegis air-defense network on Navy carriers, destroyers and cruisers and the Standard-missile family of interceptors designed to stop anti-ship missiles.

Republican House defense leaders will also try to protect contractors in lawmakers’ districts, Thompson said.

Representative Howard McKeon, a California Republican, will become chairman of the Armed Services Committee. Bill Young, a Florida Republican, may replace Norm Dicks, a Washington Democrat, as head of the panel of the Appropriations Committee that approves defense spending.

Northrop Grumman was the top defense contractor in McKeon’s California district with contracts worth $1.01 billion in 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Government. Lockheed was second with $253.2 million, and Raytheon received $87.6 million.

General Dynamics was the largest defense contractor in Young’s Florida district, spending $286.2 million, followed by Raytheon’s $221.8 million, Bloomberg Government data shows.

Afghanistan, Iraq

House Republicans have also signaled plans to review the administration’s July 2011 date to begin a gradual drawdown of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. And with the end of the U.S. military commitment in Iraq in December 2011, the Republicans will focus on State Department plans to administer the increased U.S. diplomatic presence, including whether it’s receiving enough money and manpower to accomplish the mission.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tony Capaccio in Washington at acapaccio@bloomberg.net; To contact the reporter on this story: Gopal Ratnam in Washington at gratnam1@bloomberg.net.
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[buglerbilly]

GOP Touts Tough Oversight; Skelton Gone

By Colin Clark Wednesday, November 3rd, 2010 9:15 am



UPDATED: McKeon Sets HASC Priorities; Calls For Spending on “Threats of Tomorrow”

In the most surprising vote of the election for defense watchers, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Ike Skelton, was soundly defeated last night. Skelton, who has served in the House for 33 years, had been solidly ahead in most recent polls. Then the people voted and then he lost last night by more than 5 percent to Vicky Hartzler, who attracted Tea party support. Ooops.

One other senior Democratic lawmaker on the HASC lost. Rep. Gene Taylor of Mississippi, chairman of the seapower committee, lost even though he was one of the most conservative Democrats in the House. Taylor lost to a Republican State Senator, Steven Palazzo, who we can count on to vigorously support shipbuilding given his district. Of course, he won’t have the heft Taylor did as subcommittee chairman. These losses leave the Democrats in almost complete disarray in the HASC. Who will lead the party as ranking member will become a major parlor game for Hill watchers. Rep. Buck McKeon’s selection as HASC chairman is very likely. Before the election there were no murmurs of dissatisfaction with his leadership.

Overall, I don’t foresee a lot of change in how the HASC handles things military with the ascension of the GOP. McKeon issued a statement Wednesday morning outlining his priorities for the HASC. Top of the list was “focused and aggressive” oversight. In terms of money, he offered some spin that may not appeal greatly to some of the Tea Party types focused on slashing the federal deficit..................edited...............

Read more: http://www.dodbuzz.com/2010/11/03/mckeon-new-hasc-chair-skelton-gone/#ixzz14JPn6iCR